Lately, I feel like I’ve been on some sort of strangely synchronized wavelength with Idolminded’s Ray’s posts.
A while ago, Ray made an excellent post wondering if we’re nearing the end of an idol boom. Then just yesterday, Ray was thinking of an OG-less AKB senbatsu!
So anyway, I’m not sure if I’m writing this in response, as a defensive thing so I get to releasing the latest scare-post first, or what, but I’ve been looking for the signs of the end-times, and the numbers ain’t pretty.
So here I present to you last year’s senbatsu results, with the current ages of the girls as well (the Under-19 idols bolded, and lines are for those who are graduating soon):
Name: Age (Year of Birth), group if not AKB48, Votes
The Senbatsu:
1. Oshima Yuko: 24 years old (1988), 108837
2. Watanabe Mayu: 18 years old (1994), 75574
3. Kashiwagi Yuki: 21 years old (1991), 71076
4. Sashihara Rino: 20 years old (1992), now HKT48, 67339
5. Shinoda Mariko: 26 years old (1986), 67017
6. Takahashi Minami: 21 years old (1991), 65480
7. Kojima Haruna: 24 years old (1988), 54483
8. Itano Tomomi: 21 years old (1991), 50483
9. Matsui Jurina: 15 years old (1997), SKE48/AKB48, 45747
10. Matsui Rena: 21 years old (1991), SKE48, 42030
11. Miyazawa Sae: 22 years old (1990), now SNH48, 40261
12. Kasai Tomomi: 21 years old (1991), 27005
13. Kitahara Rie: 21 years old (1991), 26531
14. Minegishi Minami: 20 years old (1992), 26038
15. Yokoyama Yui: 20 years old (1992), (also NMB48), 25541
16. Umeda Ayaka: 24 years old (1989), 24522
Hey, would you look at that. There are only two girls under 19 in the AKB48 senbatsu right now. I don’t want to get into a debate about the merits/longevity of over-20 idols, but I think it’s pretty obvious why Akimoto is pushing out his ‘Next Generation’ now, and why Mayuyu and Jurina are the centres for ‘So Long’ (as in, ‘so long, elder girls!’).
The Under Girls
17. Takajo Aki: 21 years old (1991), now JKT48, 23083
18. Yamamoto Sayaka: 19 years old (1993), NMB48, 23020
19. Watanabe Miyuki: 19 years old (1993), NMB48/AKB48, 19159 Votes
20. Akimoto Sayaka: 24 years old (1988), 19121
21. Sato Amina: 22 years old (1990), 17009
22. Kuramochi Asuka: 23 years old (1989), 14852
23. Shimazaki Haruka: 18 years old (1994), 14633
24. Takayanagi Akane: 21 years old (1991), 14111
25. Hata Sawako: 24 years old (1988), SKE48, 13920
26. Masuda Yuka: 21 years old (1991), 13166
27. Oya Masana: 22 years old (1990), SKE48, 12142
28. Yagami Kumi: 18 years old (1994), SKE48, 11712
29. Suda Akari: 21 years old (1991), SKE48, 11323
30. Furukawa Airi: 23 years old (1989), SKE48, 11179
31. Kizaki Yuria: 16 years old (1996), SKE48, 10554
32. Ogiso Shiori: 20 years old (1992), SKE48, 9596 Votes
I’m not surprised that the most popular U19 girls (minus the centre), after Wantanabe Mayu are on loan to AKB48 right now. Because AKB48 is…aging. This also explains the push of Shimazaki Haruka, since she’s the only U19 idol in AKB48 who ranks above 32, after Mayuyu, right now. I think this group’s going to see a lot of changes in the next year or two, because I doubt the older girls are going to get pushes, and I’m almost positive that both Sayaka and Miyuki will move into Senbatsu next year. Personally, think that if I were an AKB48 fan I’d be mildly alarmed because there aren’t that many U19 girls in this group either (and of the 5 there are, 4 aren’t even in the mother-group). I don’t see more loans happening. I think more grads are coming up next year, and I think this would be the really interesting ranking to watch in the next senbatsu elections because there are going to be at least 4 new spaces, and it’ll be a good place to see where the rising stars of the future are.
The Next Girls
33. Iwasa Misaki: 18 years old (1995), 9297 Votes
34. Matsumura Kaori: 23 (1990), SKE48, 9030
35. Mukaida Manatsu: 16 years old (1996), SKE48, 8552
36. Nakaya Sayaka: 21 years old (1991), 8505
37. Nakata Chisato: 22 years old (1990), 8315 Votes
38. Miyazaki Miho: 19 years old (1993), 8173 Votes
39. Nagao Mariya: 18 years old (1994), 7809
40. Fujie Reina: 19 years old (1994), 7782
41. Kobayashi Kana: 21 years old (1991), 7195
42. Maeda Ami: 17 years old (1995), 7168
43. Fukumoto Aina: 19 years old (1993), NMB48, 6912
44. Nakagawa Haruka: 21 years old (1992), now JKT48, 6890
45. Tano Yuka: 15 years old (1997), 6694
46. Yamada Nana: 20 years old, NMB48, 6683 <3
47. Miyawaki Sakura: 14 years old (1998), HKT48, 6635
48. Katayama Haruka: 22 years old (1990), 6602
In The Next Girls category, you’ve got younger kids, some girls in AKB who are U19 who used to be part of Team 4 (no wonder they had that shuffle), and a bunch of the other 48s. Looking at the ages though, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone did a calculation for the top 32 girls in AKB48 and it turned out that their average age was like, 20.
The Future Girls:
49. Muto Tomu: 18 years old (1994), AKB48 Research Student, 6428
50. Ishida Haruka: 19 years old (1993), 6333
51. Kikuchi Ayaka: 19 years old (1993), 6185
52. Ota Aika: 18 years old (1994), now HKT48, 6140
53. Matsui Sakiko: 22 years old (1990). 6058
54. Yamauchi Suzuran: 18 years old (1994), 6027
55. Nito Moeno: 20 years old (1990), 6025
56. Kimoto Kanon: 15 years old, SKE48, 5982
57. Oba Mina: 20 years old (1992), 5969
58. Ichikawa Miori: 19 years old (1993), 5963
59. Oya Shizuka: 21 years old (1991), 5933
60. Ogasawara Mayu: 18 years old (1994), NMB48, 5919
61. Sato Sumire: 19 years old (1993), 5706
62. Yakata Miki: 20 years old (1992), SKE48, 5606
63. Nakanishi Yuka: 24 years old (1989), SKE48, 5592
64. Komori Mika: 18 years old (1994), 5398
I see Ichikawa Miori ranking higher next year. Didn’t she get a huge push last year or something? (And coincidentally, she’s also U19!) Also, surely they’ll debut Muto Tomu soon?
Anyway. I’m not actually sure if AKB’s doom is near. Not the next year, or the year after, but the fact is that the majority of the girls who are popular are over 20, and they’ve been the same girls who have been popular for the past few years. Akimoto needs to push as many young girls as he can now, if he wants to continue a similar level of popularity through the upcoming wave of graduations/possible scandals, because it takes time for the public to familiarise themselves with new faces…and the current senbatsu members have all been around for years in the public eye. That kind of public love isn’t easily replaceable. It’s going to be tough, too, because this is not a new group, but a group continuing on a legacy, and the new girls have to carve out their own legacies.
Of course, I don’t think graduating all the older girls would be smart or wise–I think eventually the girls who love being idols and being in AKB48 would stick around, and a lot of other girls would move on. I’m hoping Shinoda and Kojima stay around for at least 3 more years, each.
Personally, I think Akimoto is smart enough, and more mercenary (than Tsunku at least) to go with the necessary changes to keep AKB48 popular. So I don’t see a late-Golden Age Morning Musume kind of decline. I think Tsunku got attached to the girls, and attached to producing their solo careers, but I’m under the impression that Akimoto only produces the AKB48 stuff.
So yeah, just based on the fact that the most visible senbatsu members are mostly 20+, the end times are near. But also, I think next year a new face of AKB48 will be unveiled. And it’s going to look really fresh.